CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-07-23T15:05:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-07-23T15:05ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26158/-1
CME Note: Halo CME with shock front preceding the brighter bulk. Its source is likely an eruption in AR3376 (N23W34) starting after 2023-07-23T14:00Z, likely associated with the C5.2 class flare from AR 3376 (N23W34) peaking at 2023-07-23T14:57Z. There also was a C7.4 class flare from AR 3372 on the NW limb at the time that has to be considered. Arrival signature: Interplanetary shock characterized by rapid magnetic field enhancement from 6 nT to 17 nT, rapid velocity increase from ~390 km/s to 550 km/s, and accompanying density increase. Flux rope may have started closer to 2023-07-26T03:44Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-25T21:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-26T06:50Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1028.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 603.804 Acceleration: 0.450187 Duration in seconds: 229545.25 Duration in days: 2.6567737 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.45 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 707.1 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/07/2023 Time: 06:50 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 38.27 hour(s)
Difference: -8.93 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-07-24T07:38Z
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